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Brutally Honest #159

Hey, FAM! Whatโ€™s up? ๐Ÿฅƒ Drink talk Still canโ€™t believe there are more than 18,000 people subscribed (Substack + LinkedIn). Thanks for being a part of my journey. ๐ŸฆฉTip of the week Follow carefully what is happening in the 4X genre (and Match3 to a certain extent). These two genres are obvious red oceans, but you can get inspired so much. There hasnโ€™t been a big innovation happening in the UA space lately, but the 4X genre has to innovate. Why? Because the CPIs are so high, you could almost buy a flat for that price per install. Anyway, the innovation comes from the combination of creative trends and UA-led game design. Everybody talks about the mini-games implementation since Gardenscapes did it (thanks to Hero Wars) But it's not easy to pull it off properly. For example, it took several […]

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Mobile vs. Steam

How it started (2023): "Mobile is broken, so we're pivoting to Steam now. ๐Ÿ˜…" How it's going (2025): "Here's the DATA! ๐Ÿฅ๐Ÿฅ๐Ÿฅ" From 2022-2024: A LOT of game developers gave up on mobile, and started building for Steam / PC.Over same 2 years, Annual Steam releases grew 58%. ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฎ๐—ธ (2022) ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฐ๐—ธ  ('23) ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿต๐—ธ ('24)๐Ÿฏ Wild. And, since 2024, the % of devs working on PC has grown ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ 20% (GDC '25 Survey).All of this begs an obvious question...๐˜ž๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜š๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฎ ๐˜ข ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฆ to publish games in 2023/2024?In other words, which platform, Steam or Mobile, had the higher success rate* for new products?I wanted to find out! So we analyzed  ~8000 game releases using data from AppMagic and Gamalytic.And, I must say, I was shocked by the results! ๐Ÿ˜ฎIf your goal was to make over $1M, ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ than Steam in […]

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DC: Dark Legion scaled to $300K a Day!

FunPlus's DC: Dark Legion scaled to $300K a day revenue ๐Ÿค‘ Pulling in $10 M during its first month from the initial release. Will it be enough to make a dent in the 4X genre ๐Ÿค”? This is a very ambitious iteration of multiple games stitched together. We have the idle part, which is basically Frozen City ๐Ÿฅถ, but it uses the Fallout Shelter visual. Afterwards the game ads AFK Journey style squad RPG, with its heavy Gacha mechanics. The single player content is done through on rails mechanic of your characters going through a predefined map with events and encounters like Capybara GO. And then lastly it also ads the 4X layer, such as the map radar feature, where you can attack patrols of other player and a world map. This is where the formula start to heavily differ […]

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Modeling attribution on iOS?

How to navigate the messy world of SKAN, AEM, and probabilistic attribution โ€” plus two practical frameworks to get a clearer picture of campaign performance. SKAdNetwork (SKAN) was, and still is, the most significant change in the app industry over the past decade. As a UA consultant, I still remember the good old days when we could run multiple value optimized (VO) campaigns on any ad network and achieve positive profitability within 30 days using deterministic attribution. Yeah, I wonโ€™t deny it. Having identifiers for advertisers (IDFAs) was great from a performance perspective but our privacy was seriously attacked by most companies that were promoting their stuff on the internet. The industry needed to evolve after the Facebook-Cambridge scandal and Apple was the fastest and most aggressive player to address this issue by deleting the unique parameter that allowed us […]

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Gaming On: Winning Creatives, From Hook to Install

Ever seen a Game Ad & Thought - โ€˜Wait, this looks fun!' and you hit download? The Mobile Gaming Ad landscape is evolving fast, with AI-driven insights reshaping how creatives are designed. The best-performing ads follow distinct patterns. And yeah, we donโ€™t want to see Sexist & Disturbing Ads anymoreโ€ฆ What's behind the winning creatives? Just sat down with Brijesh Bharadwaj, Co-founder of Segwise, a platform using AI to help UA teams optimize Game Ads. With experience scaling apps from 100K to 1M+ DAU and managing $6M in UA spends, Brijesh knows what works out there. MANY theories on 'Great Ads'. How did you crack the code? Brijesh: Honestly, we use AI to do the heavy lifting. The best answers come from data, not always gut feeling. We analyzed 500+ top-performing creatives across puzzle, strategy, and sim genres, by automatically […]

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9 new puzzle games out here.

Last week I sat down with 4 mobile game studio leads. Real people. Real conversations. ๐Ÿ’ฌ ๐Ÿค— One topic kept coming up, every single time: Thats why I brought you 9 new puzzle games,Potentially help the problem!Oh, what was the topic? Usual suspects ๐Ÿซ  ...Cost,Per,Installs,are either too high, or too unstable.When they think they got CPI,They lose it before an update.When they plan on growing on current CPI,They cant keep it under control.I told them they need to focus on:-> Sticky game mechanic that flows smoothly,-> Creatives that shows real gameplay,-> Try different creatives on separate campaigns.And most importantly, stay consistent on bothIteration and updates. Till you define your success.

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Sometimes the Butt of F2P Liveops will consume my thoughts for a day.

Sometimes the Butt of F2P Liveops will consume my thoughts for a day. Today is that day. In the talk, Teut Weidemann documents the rhythms of F2P engagement and monetization curves like an archaeologist uncovering a secret code. He illustrates what happens when you zoom in. Like, really in. For instance, concurrent users during football matches (the boring European kind) dip during game time and spike during halftime. Yes, that creates a butt shape (wait until you see his next shape). This kind of minute observation makes Ultra Local Live Opsโ„ข compelling, finally providing a meaningful avenue for the "personalization" agenda."Personalization" has become an ugly stepchild to price discrimination, mainly focused on triggering successive live ops offers. CRM efforts might localize notifications or reference local holidays, but rarely capture the immediacy of "what's happening now" or what's physically around players. […]

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Age of Empires: Mobile, 6 months post-launch.

๐Ÿšจ Age of Empires: Mobile, 6 months post-launch. We ran a full-scale audit using the ๐—ฆ๐—–๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—˜โ„ข ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ธ we use at Gaming Growth to evaluate mobile games across five pillars: ๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜, ๐—–๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€, ๐—”๐—ฐ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป, ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐˜†๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜๐˜†, ๐—˜๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป.๐—›๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒโ€™๐˜€ ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜: โœ… Strong initial monetization, especially on iOSโœ… Global reach with high iOS revenue in France, Japan & HKโš ๏ธ Sharp drop in installs since launchโš ๏ธ Creatives overpromise, setting expectations the game canโ€™t meetโš ๏ธ Lower iOS rating is hurting conversion๐—ฆ๐—–๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—˜ ๐—ฆ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ: ๐Ÿฏ.๐Ÿฎ/๐Ÿฑ โญLots of potential,ย but also clear areas to optimize.Check out the full breakdown in the carousel ๐Ÿ‘‡

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Wait, we need to test 480 game ideas?

"Wait, we need to test 480 game ideas? What is wrong with this industry??" Recently, I met with a former client (a top mobile games publisher) in LA.We had worked with their team to build a new game validation pipeline with the goal of launching one new hit in 2 years.Working backward, here's what we had suggested:โ€ข ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿด๐Ÿฌ ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐˜๐˜€ (CPI tests)โ€ข ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฎ ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜€ to D1 retention testingโ€ข ๐Ÿฒ ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜€ to D7 retention testingโ€ข ๐Ÿญ ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ scaling successfully WWOur prescription was both realistic, and also a reflection of the utter insanity of the current market.Testing 480 game ideas?  Have we lost our minds??At a certain point one must ask if we're playing in the industry / fishing in the right pool.This made me curious if a <1% product success rate was unique to our industry. ๐Ÿค”. How abnormal are we, actually?The […]

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Is ๐— ๐—ผ.๐—–๐—ผ’๐˜€ ‘no pay-to-win’ economy sustainable?

Is ๐— ๐—ผ.๐—–๐—ผ'๐˜€ 'no pay-to-win' economy sustainable? ๐— ๐—ผ.๐—–๐—ผโ€˜s referral-only โ€˜softโ€™ launch deserves much praise ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘And out of the gates, ๐— ๐—ผ.๐—–๐—ผ isnโ€™t SuperCellโ€™s ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต- monetizing game. ๐Ÿ˜…Squad Busters had a rockier start.That said, I doubt Supercellโ€™s commitment to a โ€˜non pay-to-winโ€™ / cosmetics- only economy will survive the transition to paid UA.Once the (quite clever) viral / organic honeymoon ends, this game will need $5+ T1 RPDs to support UA at meaningful scale.And that's okay. The economy can, and almost certainly will change in the future.Supercell has done deeper surgery before, and successfully (Brawl Stars).But thus far, cosmetics-only economies have only worked, at scale, for a small handful of games...Battle royale, with large character models to show off during gameplay, come to mind... And little else.โ“ Am i wrong?  Can Mo.Co succeed with cosmetics only / 'no pay to win?' economy?

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Dream Games is opening the UA floodgates for Royal Kingdom

๐—˜๐—–๐—ข๐—ก๐—ข๐— ๐—œ๐—–๐—ฆ ๐—ข๐—™ ๐—–๐—”๐—ก๐—ก๐—œ๐—•๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ญ๐—”๐—ง๐—œ๐—ข๐—ก & ๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—ฌ๐—”๐—Ÿ ๐—ž๐—œ๐—ก๐—š๐——๐—ข๐—  Dream Games is opening the UA floodgates for Royal Kingdom, deploying significant marketing spend and celebrity-driven creative. This move reflects a familiar pattern: Royal Match itself required about two years to scale effectively. But now, the Dream Games UA team faces a new paradigm: how to optimally scale spending across two titles and manage new franchise-level LTV dynamics. In the short run, allocation optimization is obvious as UA managers frequently โ€œrotateโ€ spend across channels within a day as CPIs spike with additional channel capital. The marginal game should function as a new channel of sorts to balance spend against ROAS. However, franchises also bring new modeling considerations.The expected value of players engaging with both games simultaneously can be modeled explicitly as:expected value,DualPlay = probability,DualPlay(LTV,old + LTV,new)Here, the probability of simultaneous engagement represents the remaining […]

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Trending Game: Meme Bots: Obunga Chase Rooms

Meme Bots: Obunga Chase Rooms โ€“ Trending Game with Pop Culture Characters ๐Ÿ‘ป Yesterday we had a look at the Top Trending for the last month and noticed these two surprise horror games.We looked into one of them โ€” Meme Bots: Obunga Chase Rooms, now nearing 10M lifetime installs after the recent relaunch ๐Ÿš€In the game, players run through maze-like maps, chased by meme-inspired characters like Obunga, Sanic, and Tralalero Tralalaย ๐Ÿฆˆ๐Ÿ‘Ÿ๐Ÿ’กWho are Nextbots?Theyโ€™re AI-driven pursuers, often shown as 2D meme images, popularized in Garryโ€™s Mod and later adopted across many games.Once again, TikTok trends + high gameplay virality = perfect combo for organic growth ๐ŸคญCheck out the game yourself.

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