Thoughts and predictions on Destiny: Rising

Destiny: Rising by NetEase Games is set to globally launch on mobile on August 28th, giving Bungie a fresh opportunity to reignite interest in the franchise. While Destiny and Destiny 2 have been hugely popular, daily active users have started to decline. Bungie’s live service model – constantly rolling out new seasons and content – has kept players engaged, but since Season 25, activity has cooled, making a mobile launch perfectly timed.

Looking at the Steam charts, Bungie’s live service model has kept players engaged with regular content updates, generating noticeable peaks in activity. However, baseline concurrent players have gradually declined, and engagement appears to be cooling off since Season 25, making the timing for a mobile launch well-suited to reinvigorate the franchise.

Why NetEase?

Partnering with NetEase makes strategic sense. In 2018, NetEase invested over $100 million in Bungie, securing a minority stake and a board seat. The partnership opened a pathway into the Chinese market while giving NetEase access to a top-tier IP. Even after Sony acquired Bungie in 2022 for $3.6 billion, Bungie retained full autonomy, allowing the collaboration to continue. With a proven track record in FPS shooters like Knives Out, Lost Light, and Blood Strike, as well as major IPs like Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings, NetEase is well-positioned to bring Destiny to mobile audiences.

Why take it to Mobile?
There are several strong reasons to bring Destiny to mobile:

• Expand Player Base – Reach players without consoles/PCs.
• Boost Visibility – Keeps Destiny relevant between expansions.
• Test Mechanics – Mobile progression and monetization experiments. We see this happening with Wild Rift being a testing ground for League of Legends on other platforms.
• Drive Cross-Platform Play – Mobile players may try console/PC versions.
• Global Reach – Access to large mobile markets, especially in Asia.

Besides those main points, the core Destiny games demand significant time investments, with sprawling campaigns, complex progression systems, and endgame activities like raids that require hours of coordination. This intensity has led to player fatigue, particularly as Destiny 2’s live service model has struggled to maintain baseline engagement since Season 25. Destiny: Rising addresses this by offering a condensed, mobile-friendly format tailored for shorter play sessions. Drawing from Wild Rift’s approach to League of Legends, which simplified mechanics and reduced match times to 15-20 minutes, Destiny: Rising is expected to streamline missions and activities to fit 5-15 minute bursts, ideal for mobile gamers. Expect campaign missions to be bite-sized, with quick objectives and instant rewards, and co-op modes like six-player Gauntlet Ops to feature matchmaking that minimizes setup time, unlike the console versions’ raid coordination demands.

This snackable design will likely appeal to burned-out Destiny players who found the grind overwhelming. For example, Call of Duty: Mobile successfully distilled its console counterpart into fast-paced matches with simplified progression, retaining core gunplay while reducing commitment. Similarly, Destiny: Rising’s first- and third-person shooting, combined with touch or controller support, will preserve the franchise’s iconic gunplay while making it accessible for quick sessions on commutes or breaks. The introduction of pre-set hero characters like Ikora Rey and customizable protagonists like “Wolf” with unique Relic abilities further reduces complexity, allowing players to jump in without navigating Destiny 2’s intricate class systems.

Monetization and Gacha Concerns

As a F2P title, Destiny: Rising will most likely adopt a monetization model similar to NetEase’s Diablo Immortal, featuring microtransactions for cosmetics, battle passes, and potentially gacha-style mechanics for weapons or characters. Posts on Reddit express skepticism about NetEase’s business practices, with fears of pay-to-win elements alienating fans. However, NetEase’s experience with titles like Naraka: Bladepoint suggests they can balance monetization to keep free-to-play players engaged. Expect a generous free track in the battle pass and earnable rewards to mitigate backlash, though premium “Mythic” gear or crossbows may tempt spending. This approach could mirror Wild Rift, where monetization focuses on skins but doesn’t lock core gameplay behind paywalls, ensuring accessibility for casual players.
Challenges and Risks

Risks
Destiny: Rising faces risks from limited Bungie involvement, which may lead to non-canonical storytelling that feels inauthentic to fans, as seen in X posts questioning NetEase’s creative control. Mobile hardware limitations could hinder delivering Destiny’s signature visuals and fluid gunplay, disappointing players expecting a AAA experience. Additionally, aggressive monetization, like pay-to-win gacha systems, risks alienating the core Destiny community, similar to Diablo Immortal’s early backlash.

I’d imagine NetEase would have learned from Diablo Immortal’s backlash and make adjustments, but regardless will still face some wrath of people experiencing the non-spender vs spender experience.

Besides those concerns, I believe the overall net will be positive for the Destiny franchise as they access new players and breathe new life into the communities. And while other major FPS titles have come and gone like Battlefield Mobile and Apex Legends Mobile – I think that NetEase is better positioned then they were to keep the 10 million pre-registered players and new installs that will come during launch happy with regular content updates and live ops events.

We will keep our eyes on Destiny: Rising launching globally August 28th…..