Roblox & Now the Alarming Trojen Horse
Roblox’s continued growth and retention of aging players will start to represent a serious threat to the game industry. It’s something we need to start coming to grips with.
Roblox’s per-user monetization is lower than traditional F2P and older demo titles. The platform’s massive scale (over 40M users online at the same time) cannot be overstated. At the RDC conference, you’d have to admire the platform’s expansionary gall, and also recognize its larger meaning.
Gaming’s timeshare dominance threat has been short-form video, which incorporates bi-directional effects that games are infamous for. Viewers have agency on these platforms, which reflects an experience to them, even if it’s implicit. Yet, Western short-form video growth has slowed and settled into its long-run equilibrium. Now, it’s in the trenches for timeshare.
Roblox Moments (TikTok-style short form) captures discovery, but engages in and of itself. In fact, that needs to be the primary imperative for it to succeed. Will players want to discover and engage with content like this? Does this unlock a new Twitch-esque audience? Interestingly, the video is vertical rather than horizontal (how most games play). Maybe one of the platform’s original sins!
Other UGC platforms stagnate – it’s becoming clear that the next wave of UGC embraces AI. Ben Thompson has been formulating a thesis that ultimately platforms like Facebook exist simply to serve ads (not untrue!), but they are increasingly becoming means independent. The entire concept of the “feed” is merely a series of feeding troughs that can be filled with various legos. It’s utterly unglamorous, but even LinkedIn now has games built into it. Facebook is also reportedly testing AI video, with impressive results. Make no mistake, this puts gaming under the lens.
The problem is that if Roblox Moments succeeds, it becomes the aggregator, owning demand and thus distribution. Already, Roblox owns the engine on which games on its platforms are built. Like the App Store, it starts as an opportunity but ultimately becomes a nightmare.
The only hope is Fortnite. It’s not looking great. Epic’s stubborn refusal to allow creators to directly add MTX to their islands prevents the UGC flywheel from starting. Monetization attracts more creators, who bring content, which attracts players, who bring monetization.
While Epic’s attempts at being developer-friendly, including an increased rev share and public platform, they won’t say the magic words that let people invest more capital in learning the platform and mastering it. Indeed, it seems Epic is doubling down on big brand partnerships. But if this is the case, Tim Sweeney needs to stop responding to the annual tweet in which a Twitter user asks, “Is Fortnite a platform?” and Tim Sweeney replies, “Ask me again in a year.” It’s becoming increasingly apparent that the answer might always be “sometime”.
