Remember when we could track conversions accurately on mobile?

Remember when we could track conversions accurately on mobile. Those days are gone.

Now it’s all “probabilistic attribution” – fancy words for educated guessing. The same conversion gets credited to 3 different channels depending on which dashboard you check. Signal-to-noise ratio is terrible. Measuring incremental gains is key.

Everyone’s rushing to web2web thinking it’s salvation. Reality:

– 3x budget needed for same learnings
– Requires complete product rebuild
– Aggressive paywalls become mandatory
– Complex cancel flows are table stakes

Some businesses with high LTV and aggressive subscription models are winning with web2web. But most aren’t prepared for the economics.

It’s not fixing attribution. It’s just moving to a more expensive casino with higher table minimums. Same house edge, different dealer.

Maybe the real question isn’t how to track better – it’s how to build businesses that don’t need perfect attribution to scale profitably.

Maybe the solution isn’t chasing perfect measurement. Maybe it’s building products so good that fuzzy attribution doesn’t matter.