Exact monthly burn that predicts failure vs. success at each stage.
I’ve reviewed 200+ gaming studio P&Ls. Here’s the exact monthly burn that predicts failure vs. success at each stage.
Pre-production (0-6 months):
Winners: $30-50K/month
Losers: $150K+/month
The difference? Winners have 3-5 people figuring out the fun. Losers have 15 people building infrastructure for a game that doesn’t exist yet.
Prototype to soft launch (6-12 months):
Winners: $50-80K/month
Losers: $300K+/month
Winners stay lean, test fast, kill bad ideas. Losers hire a full art team, lease a fancy office, and burn cash on “culture.”
Soft launch to global (12-18 months):
Winners: $80-120K/month
Losers: $500K+/month
This is where it gets interesting. Winners only scale when the data screams “yes.” Losers throw money at “maybe.”
Post-launch scaling:
Winners: Variable based on revenue
Losers: Fixed high burn regardless of performance
The brutal truth from all these P&Ls?
Studios that succeed keep burn at 3-4x their MRR until they hit $1M monthly revenue. Studios that fail burn 10-20x their MRR hoping for a miracle.
I’ve seen studios with $2M in the bank last 3 years. I’ve seen studios with $10M burn out in 18 months.
The difference wasn’t the game quality.
It was burn discipline.
Your runway is your lifeline. Every hire, every tool, every fancy office chair is a month less to find product-market fit.
Burn like you’re broke.
Even when you’re not.
Especially when you’re not.
