Phillip Black

It's Time for Games to Embrace Aggregation Theory In tech writer Ben Thompson's infamous aggregation theory, economic power derives from supply ownership—train barons owned the track and leveraged that power up and down the supply chain. The internet flipped the relationship: with near zero switching and distribution costs, suppliers instead aggregated user demand to leverage suppliers. Consider Amazon: aggregating millions of customers gained power over suppliers, compelling them to compete on its platform and play by its rules. In a post-ATT and "black hole games" world, gaming unwittingly embraced this dictionary, and distribution has become all-powerful.Previously, games saw a lite version of aggregation theory, as platform owners like Sony and Microsoft owned the track (and thus users), allowing them to set the game's rules. But something funny happened: cross-play, progression, and commerce crumbled console platform power as Epic leveraged Fortnite's […]

The Fallout TV series has received widespread critical and audience acclaim, with 65M viewers and Amazon Prime's 2nd most-watched show of all time.  The show appears to have cracked the secret transmedia success formula: top-tier IP, backed by a nine-figure budget, distribution through a 200M MAU network, and widespread critical acclaim.  Consistent with the transmedia thesis, engagement with Fallout games has skyrocketed, with all games experiencing significant uplifts. However, price cuts have ended, and according to VG Insights, revenue is down 50%+ from two-week highs in titles like Fallout 76. While the uplift has yet to return to equilibrium, a generous guess might land $40M in incremental revenue across the franchise before returning to a steady state. The final revenue impact may tally north of $50M. And yet, hailed as a transmedia success, Fallout instead shows the exact opposite: if this is the […]

When a new game enters public testing, many people use the first day's performance to judge its quality. After all, most mobile games peak at launch. However, this curse doesn't seem to apply to "AFK: Journey" (hereinafter referred to as "Journey")—more than 20 days after its international test launch, the game continues to surpass its records, even rising from around Top 30 to Top 7 on the US iOS best-seller list. Considering "Journey's" multi-platform gaming options, its actual revenue may be higher than what the charts suggest. 1. AFK Journey hasn't peaked yet; too early to judge. + Rising after launch.Team doesn't know how the game will perform; nervous.2. IAP improved KPIs."A good numerical game must enhance the game experience after players pay. Here's a small comparison: in September 2022, we tested without payments, and the data wasn't great; when […]

1. Cultural Norms Matter There's far less "sharing" in Turkey than in Finland or Sweden. Anyone with a Finnish ID number seems to have access to Supercell's dashboards! Turkey has largely avoided non-competes, and it must stay that way. King single-handedly has hamstrung Swedish mobile game development with its notorious three-month non-competes, which, after a three-month notice period, amount to six months for an employee to start elsewhere. France is dealing with a similar issue, and it's to their detriment. Much of Silicon Valley's success is due to the ban on non-competes, something that's gone over the heads of subsidy-happy governments.2. Agglomeration Effects are RealEconomists are fond of the power of location to build industries through virtuous success cycles and knowledge spillovers between firms. Turkish development feels like 90% puzzle or hypercasual, and it's no wonder, given Peak, Gram, Dream, […]