Data Dump Friday

𝗔𝗡𝗜𝗠𝗘 𝗦𝗛𝗢𝗢𝗧𝗘𝗥 𝗛𝗜𝗧𝗦 𝟰𝟬𝟬𝗸 𝗪𝗜𝗦𝗛𝗟𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗦; 𝗕𝗥𝗔𝗖𝗘 𝗬𝗢𝗨𝗥𝗦𝗘𝗟𝗙• Strinova hits 400k Steam Wishlists• Waifu 3rd-person shooter w/nearly 4M web pre-registrations• From iDreamSky, a Chinese Studio• Has Tencent Money• ~$500M market cap; publicly traded on the Hong Kong Exchange• Previously published Western Games in China (e.g., War Robots, Subway Surfers)• With the rise of Steam China, this could be a considerable cross-region game.• Remember, Nikkie and Genshin were hits in the U.S. (25% rev share)! 𝗗𝗨𝗡𝗚𝗘𝗢𝗡 𝗙𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗧𝗘𝗥 𝗢𝗡𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘, 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗜𝗚𝗚𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗘 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥, 𝗦𝗟𝗢𝗪𝗜𝗡𝗚• Bigger than Monopoly Go!• ~$700M over 6 months; iOS only• $88 Revenue Per Download!• But downloads are crumbling, far below Honor of Kings (10-20k v.s. 500k Weekly)• Something doesn’t smell right; this limited appeal? Data error?• The total revenue curve is bending inward, too.𝗛𝗔𝗩𝗘 𝗪𝗘𝗕𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗘𝘀 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗖𝗛𝗘𝗗 𝗘𝗤𝗨𝗜𝗕𝗟𝗥𝗨𝗜𝗠? 𝟳𝟬%+ 𝗔𝗗𝗢𝗣𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡• Huuuge Games: In H1 2024 DTC revenues accounted for […]

Phillip Black November 1

Journal

Gaming Will NOT Grow: Konvoy Data

𝗞𝗢𝗡𝗩𝗢𝗬 𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗔 𝗦𝗨𝗚𝗚𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗦 𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗪𝗜𝗟𝗟 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗚𝗥𝗢𝗪• From $188M to $223M in 2029.• This means virtually no growth. Huh?• $188B is worth about $218B in 2029 dollars assuming a 3% inflation rates.• $218B to $223B is a 2% change, way, way below the S&P 500 8% real 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘶𝘢𝘭 growth rate.• Inflation and S&P benchmarks need to be a core part of any long-run market analysis. 𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗢𝗙 𝗘𝗠𝗣𝗜𝗥𝗘𝘀 𝗠𝗢𝗕𝗜𝗟𝗘 𝗜𝗦 𝗛𝗨𝗚𝗘• An over 1M download start is far above other recent releases, including the steady-eddy Sea of Conquest from Fun Plus.• Uses the RTS element to fake ad into 4x, but less brutally then Last War.• After a big brand budget burst, will this sustain? Let’s see!𝟰𝘅 𝗠𝗜𝗥𝗥𝗢𝗥𝗦 𝗛𝗘𝗚𝗘𝗠𝗢𝗡 𝗣𝗢𝗟𝗜𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗦• U.S. dominates, but China’s RPD is unusually high (~10% of downloads but 20% of revenue).• 4x is a region uniting […]

Phillip Black October 25

Journal

Data Dump Friday; Oct 18th

Data Dump Friday; Fri Oct 18th, Week 21 𝗝𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗻’𝘀 𝗣𝗖 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝟯𝗫’𝗗 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟵• Similar trend when working with clients: Japan stands out.• Apex Legends famously has a devoted Japanese player base.• How to figure out where to go next with the insight?• More Japanese localization and characters?• The West needs to spend more time understanding how they broke through in Japan to begin with.𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝘆 𝗚𝗼 𝗛𝗮𝗱 𝗔 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝟯 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗟• Early ARPU signs must have reinforced the decision to launch, but the shape of the ARPU is uncertain. How did they calibrate UA?• This is where the DS team made big bucks (if they were right).• The team thought long soft launches drain morale, which is potentially why Squad Busters launched early.• MiHoYo thinks they can will games to No. 1.𝗢𝗙𝗙 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗥𝗜𝗗 𝗚𝗢𝗘𝗦 𝗢𝗙𝗙 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗚𝗥𝗜𝗗• Web3 […]

Phillip Black October 19

Journal

DATA DUMP FRIDAY; Oct 11th

DATA DUMP FRIDAY; Oct 11th- 9 Month Fortnite Player Count Highs; it’s desperately needed + Continuing storyline: can Epic grow UEFN? + 30% growth in two years and a mediocre trend line isn’t enough.++ Roblox is slaying it (but apparently, it’s all bots)!+ The new EU mobile store should be a part of these metrics.++10M EGS downloads; little active user bump. Yikes.- EA is launching The Sims Labs: Town Stories to playtesters; may the franchise realize its potential.+ Part of EA’s playtesting program, The Sims Labs, where playtesters new ideas roll out within The Sims franchise.++ Embarrassing EA hasn’t grown it’s 30+ Female demo on mobile with this franchise.+ $500M over 10 years; The Sims 4 did $1B half that time.- Archero 2 is in soft-launch; Archero 1 needs re-write.Survivor outclasses + Archero, but decay has slowed.++ No feature direction […]

Phillip Black October 11

Journal

Data Dump Friday

Imagine a worse version of whatever newsletter you read converted to a Tweet thread, then converted to a corporate slideshow.

Phillip Black October 4

Journal

It’s Time for Games to Embrace Aggregation Theory

It's Time for Games to Embrace Aggregation Theory In tech writer Ben Thompson's infamous aggregation theory, economic power derives from supply ownership—train barons owned the track and leveraged that power up and down the supply chain. The internet flipped the relationship: with near zero switching and distribution costs, suppliers instead aggregated user demand to leverage suppliers. Consider Amazon: aggregating millions of customers gained power over suppliers, compelling them to compete on its platform and play by its rules. In a post-ATT and "black hole games" world, gaming unwittingly embraced this dictionary, and distribution has become all-powerful.Previously, games saw a lite version of aggregation theory, as platform owners like Sony and Microsoft owned the track (and thus users), allowing them to set the game's rules. But something funny happened: cross-play, progression, and commerce crumbled console platform power as Epic leveraged Fortnite's […]

Phillip Black September 9

Journal

Three Ways to Improve Taylor Swift’s ARPPU

Three Ways to Improve Taylor Swift's ARPPU: A Game Economist Attends the Eras Tour At the Eras Tour in Stockholm, my thoughts naturally turned to Ms. Swift's untapped monetization potential. Despite her billionaire status, she's barely scratched the surface. By embracing "Taylor's Version" labeling, Era-specific merch, and friendship bracelet culture, Swift could double her "extras" ARPPU from $50 to $100.When the Eras Tour comes to town, media outlets scramble for clickbait headlines, and businesses concoct Swift-themed promotions faster than you can say "Shake It Off." Brands quickly turn the occasion into a LiveOps event and co-opt the festivities. Along these lines, a local cookie shop created branded heart-shaped, glitter-coated "Taylor" cookies, but Swift received no revenue. "Free promotion" is a skeptical defense of using someone's likeness for profit. Taylor has always maintained good-natured relationships with her fans, and pursuing legal […]

Phillip Black August 15

Journal

Squad Busters One Month Later: Down, But Not Out

While there's no shortage of design suggestions to improve Squad Busters, the more imperative story is the decision to launch and how it launched. It's a tale of understandable frustration combined with a brand that didn't deliver. I thought the IP could pull in historic (and ongoing) download volume, but I was severely and utterly wrong. My priors have firmly shifted to mobile-first IP as ephemeral and an even larger skepticism of brand marketing in mobile.There are many questions about skipping soft-launch, but the alternative is not a big bang. It's slow scale ala Match Factory. We still lack a solid theory of "why," however. Squad Busters One Month Later: Down, But Not Out It's been about one month since Squad Busters launched—enough time for front-loaded marketing spend to subside and the immediate reality to set. Squad Buster’s launch failed. […]

Phillip Black July 15

Journal

Social Casino Continues to Innovate on Liveops

Social casino continues to innovate on liveops, as they have for decades, unbeknownst to many PMs and designers. "Ew, casino" reactions miss essential learnings and design innovation.Liveops matters so much to casinos because the core is so simple (although the slots math is not). There's a smaller design space, so formats are contoured and create unique mechanics.Two stood out from Liquid and Grit & Game Economist Consulting Monthly Round Table on Jackpot Party:Safety Net: when balances hit 0, claim a 10M coin grant. Every 30 minutes, the player is eligible for another claim. This creates a rebounding effect when spending velocity is high and applies to any energy-based system. It also encourages draining balances to 0 as frequently as possible. Star Power: grants players rewards and power if they grow their average transaction size (bet size). This creates an almost […]

Phillip Black July 8

Journal

Fallout is the Final Nail in the Transmedia Coffin

The Fallout TV series has received widespread critical and audience acclaim, with 65M viewers and Amazon Prime's 2nd most-watched show of all time. The show appears to have cracked the secret transmedia success formula: top-tier IP, backed by a nine-figure budget, distribution through a 200M MAU network, and widespread critical acclaim. Consistent with the transmedia thesis, engagement with Fallout games has skyrocketed, with all games experiencing significant uplifts. However, price cuts have ended, and according to VG Insights, revenue is down 50%+ from two-week highs in titles like Fallout 76. While the uplift has yet to return to equilibrium, a generous guess might land $40M in incremental revenue across the franchise before returning to a steady state. The final revenue impact may tally north of $50M. And yet, hailed as a transmedia success, Fallout instead shows the exact opposite: if this is the […]

Phillip Black May 15

Journal

7 Highlights from the interview with AFK Journey Dev Lilith:

When a new game enters public testing, many people use the first day's performance to judge its quality. After all, most mobile games peak at launch. However, this curse doesn't seem to apply to "AFK: Journey" (hereinafter referred to as "Journey")—more than 20 days after its international test launch, the game continues to surpass its records, even rising from around Top 30 to Top 7 on the US iOS best-seller list. Considering "Journey's" multi-platform gaming options, its actual revenue may be higher than what the charts suggest. 1. AFK Journey hasn't peaked yet; too early to judge. + Rising after launch.Team doesn't know how the game will perform; nervous.2. IAP improved KPIs."A good numerical game must enhance the game experience after players pay. Here's a small comparison: in September 2022, we tested without payments, and the data wasn't great; when […]

Phillip Black May 7

Journal

The Call of Duty Puzzle No One Has Solved

Call of Duty Mobile (CODM) provided a watershed moment for mobile, proving Western gamers are ready for virtual dual analog stick controls and heralding a wave of Eastern titles to the West. Or did it? Four years after CODM's launch, the graveyard of aspiring mobile shooters' is extraordinary: Undawn, Lost Light, Blood Strike, Valorent (canceled), and Battlefield (canceled). These are high-profile games, too: Undawn reportedly had a 300-person team on a $130M budget to only amass $300k in revenue last month. Conversely, a few titles have succeeded, albeit primarily outside of the West: PUBG ($1.1B), Crossfire (~$500M), Arena Breakout ($50M), and Knives Out (~$109M). However, in the U.S., CODM accounts for 97% of revenue. Surely, this sets up Warzone Mobile for success? CODM embraced an auto-fire mechanic to navigate the inherent awkwardness of mobile FPS controls. Dual analog sticks require […]

Phillip Black April 15

Phillip Black

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