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Phillip Black

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Jason Citron’s Discord Exit

๐—๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—–๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ป'๐˜€ ๐——๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ ๐—˜๐˜…๐—ถ๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—š๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐— ๐˜†๐˜๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜€ Discord represented gaming's best chance to be recognized among tech's elite. A recognition that increasingly means political influence rather than only the validation the games industry always seeks. Jason Citron, founder and longtime Discord CEO, is stepping down at a pivotal moment, as the company gears up for an IPO. It's a significant blow to what ought to be gaming's broader ambition: claiming a seat at tech's most influential table, dominated by founder-CEO figures like Zuckerberg (Meta), Chesky (Airbnb), the Collisons (Stripe), and Ek (Spotify). Founder CEOs craft mystical founding narratives, something gaming needs but rarely cultivates. Tech founders have dramatizations like The Social Network, The Playlist (Spotify), or Super Pumped (Uber). Gaming had a chance to elevate its mythos with the unironically named 'Mythic Quest', our version of 'Silicon Valley', […]

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How to Model Extraction Economies

Check this out! The answer to extraction shooters lies in system design. By creating a model, we can derive implications that help guide key design decisions and frame challenges in a quantifiable way. A model also lays plain some of the variables that shape the experience of extractions. Thereโ€™s a reason Marathonโ€™s design director mentioned a target survival rate of 50% (the percentage of players who successfully extract). This single variable has enormous implications for how players experience progression. Hint: itโ€™s the casino dummy. Similar to social casino, the genre creates โ€œrunsโ€ where players can extract wealth or resources. Each successful run means more wealth and greater stakes. And like social casino, the genre has developed player โ€œhedgesโ€ but turned them into progression vectors. For instance, players can โ€˜stashโ€™ income or utilize โ€˜insuranceโ€™ slots, which enable them to protect specific […]

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Sometimes the Butt of F2P Liveops will consume my thoughts for a day.

Sometimes the Butt of F2P Liveops will consume my thoughts for a day. Today is that day. In the talk, Teut Weidemann documents the rhythms of F2P engagement and monetization curves like an archaeologist uncovering a secret code. He illustrates what happens when you zoom in. Like, really in. For instance, concurrent users during football matches (the boring European kind) dip during game time and spike during halftime. Yes, that creates a butt shape (wait until you see his next shape). This kind of minute observation makes Ultra Local Live Opsโ„ข compelling, finally providing a meaningful avenue for the "personalization" agenda."Personalization" has become an ugly stepchild to price discrimination, mainly focused on triggering successive live ops offers. CRM efforts might localize notifications or reference local holidays, but rarely capture the immediacy of "what's happening now" or what's physically around players. […]

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Dream Games is opening the UA floodgates for Royal Kingdom

๐—˜๐—–๐—ข๐—ก๐—ข๐— ๐—œ๐—–๐—ฆ ๐—ข๐—™ ๐—–๐—”๐—ก๐—ก๐—œ๐—•๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ญ๐—”๐—ง๐—œ๐—ข๐—ก & ๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—ฌ๐—”๐—Ÿ ๐—ž๐—œ๐—ก๐—š๐——๐—ข๐—  Dream Games is opening the UA floodgates for Royal Kingdom, deploying significant marketing spend and celebrity-driven creative. This move reflects a familiar pattern: Royal Match itself required about two years to scale effectively. But now, the Dream Games UA team faces a new paradigm: how to optimally scale spending across two titles and manage new franchise-level LTV dynamics. In the short run, allocation optimization is obvious as UA managers frequently โ€œrotateโ€ spend across channels within a day as CPIs spike with additional channel capital. The marginal game should function as a new channel of sorts to balance spend against ROAS. However, franchises also bring new modeling considerations.The expected value of players engaging with both games simultaneously can be modeled explicitly as:expected value,DualPlay = probability,DualPlay(LTV,old + LTV,new)Here, the probability of simultaneous engagement represents the remaining […]

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Seeds are one of the most powerful variables in game design.

Seeds are one of the most powerful variables in game design, and one of the least acknowledged. EAโ€™s Data Science team published a paper showing a 5x difference in win rateโ€”from 15% to 75%โ€”based only on the seed used to initialize a board. The level design and other match parameters remained the same! Computers canโ€™t generate genuine randomness, so they "anchor" on seeds: a fixed number generates a pseudo-random sequence. The initial board state is the same if the seed stays the same. Without fixed seeds, every level must be balanced across the entire range of possible outcomes. When match designers look at attempts per success, seeds hide so much of the variability in experience, creating uneven ground to balance against. Battle Royales do this too, wherein loot tables are often seeded, either consciously selected or not.The hierarchical rules of […]

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How to Create the MONOPOLY GO! Effect

Monopoly Goโ€™s economy design makes social casino accessible. The roll-move-resolve loop is more approachable on a board than on a slots reel, so the game can create a real sense of tension (the board piece will sometimes enter bullet time before landing on a tile). Another achievement is the gameโ€™s events, which cut to the core of the design. Recurring events are a key source of how the game creates โ€œrunsโ€ by stringing together level climbing in different, interconnected progression centres. While Monopoly Go certainly wasnโ€™t the first to invent โ€œmove around board, trigger eventsโ€, itโ€™s undoubtedly popularized it. Itโ€™s starting to appear as its own genre, and even morphing into Archero 2 mini-games. Excel Sheet here. The events โ€œtickleโ€ the mind by creating cascading effects where multiple reward centres trigger, in some time interconnected ways. The economy is of […]

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War Robots has never received the credit it deserves.

War Robots has never received the credit it deserves for its financial and design achievements. Launching a PvP combat experience in 2014 with PS2-level graphics using virtual dual analog sticks seemed skeptical at best, yet the team didn't just create a "Forever Franchise"; it grew into one.ย ย A former Scopely PM described their strategy as taking "C/C+ games and liveop'ing them into B/B+" products. Something similar has happened here, with the franchise catering to a sticky core audience, expanding it over time, and becoming an A product. IAP Revenue is astonishingly stable despite massive changes in download composition (I'm sure the Indian shift is unrelated to geopolitics...). War Robots successfully captured not only Eastern European tankies but also the Japanese and US players. ย Its recent relaunch in China also appears more promising than its initial entry.Initially, compared to World of Tanks […]

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Supercell is going to the movies, baby.

Coincidence? I think not. Supercell is going to the movies, baby. Sonic, Mario, and now Minecraft will have every game business development exec businโ€™ around Los Angeles for months. World of Warcraft, Borderlands, and Monster Hunter "interpretations" will be swept under the rug. And we already know Arcaneโ€™s famed ability to blow NINE figures. While Hollywood experiences cyclical trends, this has earned the โ€œtransmediaโ€ sub-brand, a sort of VC baptism of the strategy. Yet none of these franchises seem to use it. None of them were timed with content updatesโ€”releases across a franchise should be synchronized to amplify the transmedia effects. The same is true for breakout hit ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต, which had no wide release. Ultimately, the Supercell platform is vast (360M MAU, or about the size of the United States), and theyโ€™ve experimented with short-form animation on YouTube. With all […]

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Anti-AI Artists Need Better Arguments

๐—”๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ-๐—”๐—œ ๐—”๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—•๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—”๐—ฟ๐—ด๐˜‚๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜†'๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—”๐—œ ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ Another wave of AI advances, another chorus of artists crying foul. Each wave has been unoccupied by serious argumentation; pro-Copyrightists need to advance something beyond an assumed conclusion if they want to win minds, not just hearts. Copyrightists routinely declare AI-generated art and "training" as copyright infringement and insist artists are owed royalties. This assumption is anything but obvious. If every artist owes royalties to those who came before, should every "pop" artist who creates in the style of Eduardo Paolozzi owe his estate royalties? Film director Tarantino routinely mirrors Spaghetti-western shots; his royalty bill must be absurd. Art and science have always evolved by imitation and influence; the very idea of copyright is a recent invention. No one knows this better than games!The universal outcry against WB Games' patenting […]

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Netflix Needs to Acquire the Jack-of-All-Trades

๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ณ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜… ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—”๐—ฐ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ-๐—ผ๐—ณ-๐—”๐—น๐—น-๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ Netflix Games finally has a coherent strategyโ€”hallelujah! Yet, despite this clarity, it's missing the most obvious acquisition opportunity since Sony scooped up Insomniac Games: Jackbox Games. Netflix pushes games to subscribers via a row within its mobile app, directing users to separate App Store pages for download. The strategy was flawed from the start, as 70%+ of Netflix consumption happens on TVs. The Games group desperately sought awareness, resorting to ๐‘โ„Ž๐‘ฆ๐‘ ๐‘–๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘™ ๐‘๐‘–๐‘™๐‘™๐‘๐‘œ๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘‘๐‘  reading: "Wait, Netflix has Games?" A modest improvement, but still failing to meet subscribers where they areโ€”TV.While Netflix had an AAA FPS studio, it was dubious that it could ever solve distribution or input challenges. Netflix's sprawling device ecosystem and lack of a dedicated controller raised doubts from day 1โ€”unless another ill-fated game streaming service was planned (RIP OnLive, Stadia, GameFly, and xCloud).Enter […]

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Four Things from GDC

๐—™๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐—š๐——๐—– ๐Ÿญ. ๐—ช๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐™ฌ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ฉ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™ก๐™ž๐™ซ๐™šThis revelation insight from former Machine Zone CEO Gabe Leydon spun my head throughout the conference. He's right: our passion isn't dead, but it's undoubtedly been crowded out. Mobile obsesses over acquisition, while HD fixates on fundraising. New platform dreamsโ€”web3, AR/VR, HTML5, UGCโ€”have largely fizzled. Yet these platforms persist, surviving but not thriving. Mock AR/VR as the "Dippin' Dots of Games" if you like, but at least those developers burn with genuine passion.The rest of the industry must reignite the will to surviveโ€”the kind we see from firms like Supercell, Lessmore, and Hypehype.๐Ÿฎ. ๐—”๐—œ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜†-๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ; ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„Michail Katkoff made an excellent observation about the absence of the "world-changing" bravado heard from SF founders intoxicated by Paul Graham essays. Instead, the talks were pragmaticโ€”topics like " 'Angry Birds' and AI […]

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U.S. Economy Shapes Mobile Gamingโ€™s Future

๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—š๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด'๐˜€ ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—จ.๐—ฆ. ๐—˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—บ๐˜†. ๐—œ๐˜ ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—”๐˜€๐—ธ ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—” ๐——๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ If you're European, you need the U.S. economy to grow. If you're Canadian, you need the U.S. economy to grow. This sobering reality underscores nearly every Western mobile development hub today: for mobile gaming to grow, the U.S. needs to grow. Although optimistic narratives from developing markets like India and Brazil are abundant, their growth rates still pale compared to the U.S.'s real spending power growth. For the foreseeable future, it's U.S. or bust in mobile gaming, a reality suggesting mobile gaming doesn't control its destiny. Political literature in the early 2000s enthusiastically promoted the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as future economic powerhouses. Since then, however, these countries have largely underperformed expectations. Rather than converging with the U.S., the gap has widened, […]

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