Background

The biggest In-App-Ad battle of 2026?

Josh Chandley

The biggest In-App-Ad battle of 2026?
๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฎ & ๐—š๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ด๐—น๐—ฒ ๐˜ƒ๐˜€ ๐—”๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ข๐—ฆ.

The Duopoly have been locked out of iOS for years.
They went all in on SKAdNetwork, but probabilistic attribution won out.
Now they’re playing catch up.

๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ต๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ฒ:
๐Ÿ”น More demand in auctions = higher CPMs.
๐Ÿ”น Better ad quality = less player churn.

Publishers and players both win, but they’re not live yet.
๐—”๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—”๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ธ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ.

AppLovin has captured disproportionate share on iOS. Nearly double their Android footprint.
Meta and Google’s e-commerce advertisers can’t spend effectively on iOS yet, so AppLovin has offered them a solution that works today.

๐—œ๐—ณ ๐—š๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ด๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฎ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ป’๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐—น๐˜†, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜†’๐—น๐—น ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐—ฟ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐˜€.

Google in particular has been handing AppLovin share.
Probabilistic attribution is just now entering open beta.
Their ban on multi-call has been an own goal, gifting impressions directly to AppLovin.

Meta’s probabilistic solution has been a game changer, but only for when buying on their Instagram & Facebook.
Audience Network is still left waiting.

AppLovin isn’t waiting for permission.
They’re building a moat while the Meta and Google debate the blueprint.

Each passing quarter gives AppLovin more data, more relationships, and more proof points. Momentum becomes harder to reverse.

๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด, ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—”๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฟ.

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