Can hyper-casual still work?

Last week a client asked: “Can hyper-casual still work?”

My answer:

“Anything is possible, but, I’d recommend against it.”

Best evidence:

The pubs best at hyper-casual have pivoted to hybrid.

Client:  “Well, how did Block Blast do it?”

𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

So I did a bit of digging…

Here is how Block Blast scaled from 15M to 42M monthly downloads over the past several months.

A 60-cent Ad LTV (given insane retention) would put them at a $300M / year run rate on ads alone. 😮

So, how did they do this, in 2025?

1. 𝟯𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗔/𝗕 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁𝘀:  They iterated aggressively since 2022, ran 3000 A/B tests, some with AI players. 😶

2. 𝗗𝟲𝟬 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 of 𝟮𝟴%: The fruit of this iteration. 🍒

3. 𝟭𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗱 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 concepts in past 2y. 🤠


So… that’s ALL it takes to have a hit! 😆

A D60 retention higher than most games’ D7, 3000 A/B tests, a bit of luck, and a battalion of AI + human ad creators. 😅

May the odds be ever in your favor. ✌️

—————————-
Note: For Q1 2025, Sensortower’s estimated WW D60R est. fell to 19%.  Still nuts! 🥜