Matthew Emery

"Wait, we need to test 480 game ideas? What is wrong with this industry??" Recently, I met with a former client (a top mobile games publisher) in LA.We had worked with their team to build a new game validation pipeline with the goal of launching one new hit in 2 years.Working backward, here's what we had suggested:• 𝟰𝟴𝟬 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝘀 (CPI tests)• 𝟭𝟮 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 to D1 retention testing• 𝟲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 to D7 retention testing• 𝟭 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 scaling successfully WWOur prescription was both realistic, and also a reflection of the utter insanity of the current market.Testing 480 game ideas?  Have we lost our minds??At a certain point one must ask if we're playing in the industry / fishing in the right pool.This made me curious if a <1% product success rate was unique to our industry. 🤔. How abnormal are we, actually?The […]

Is 𝗠𝗼.𝗖𝗼'𝘀 'no pay-to-win' economy sustainable? 𝗠𝗼.𝗖𝗼‘s referral-only ‘soft’ launch deserves much praise 👏👏👏And out of the gates, 𝗠𝗼.𝗖𝗼 isn’t SuperCell’s 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘴𝘵- monetizing game. 😅Squad Busters had a rockier start.That said, I doubt Supercell’s commitment to a ‘non pay-to-win’ / cosmetics- only economy will survive the transition to paid UA.Once the (quite clever) viral / organic honeymoon ends, this game will need $5+ T1 RPDs to support UA at meaningful scale.And that's okay. The economy can, and almost certainly will change in the future.Supercell has done deeper surgery before, and successfully (Brawl Stars).But thus far, cosmetics-only economies have only worked, at scale, for a small handful of games...Battle royale, with large character models to show off during gameplay, come to mind... And little else.❓ Am i wrong?  Can Mo.Co succeed with cosmetics only / 'no pay to win?' economy?

How to fail 😩 at hybrid-casual puzzle ⤵️ Recently I've worked with several clients transitioning from hypercasual into hybrid-casual.Mostly puzzle games, which represent ~50% of successful hybrid-casual launches since 2023 (AppMagic data, Arcade is the other 50%)Each of these developers is doing a LOT of things right.But they were all making the same mistake:Underinvesting in or deferring robust loss aversion / streak features.𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲'𝘀 𝗺𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗰𝗸 𝗣𝗦𝗔:For linear, level-based puzzle games with loss states:• Streaks systems are not LiveOps• Streaks are 𝗮 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗳𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲• Without streaks, I have little concern about losing• Why boost or revive?  I'll just lose / try again.• Do lives motivate? Maybe, but they end the session• If I don't care about losing, the economy is inert• If I don't engage with the economy, I've no interest in RVs or IAPs except maybe 'remove […]

Turbine's Step-by-Step Playbook for Hybrid Casual Development 👇 ✅ 1. Find talented dev team in India, Turkey, Ukraine, Malaysia, Romania or Poland. 😆✅ 2. Build 'core gameplay prototypes' in service of core gameplay ads, until you find < $1 CPI in US iOS FB.✅ 3. Assume you will repeat #2 many, many times. If you can produce ads without prototypes, all the better.✅ 4. Commit to one (or more) of the six proven IAP econ structures most appropriate for your core GP.✅ 5. Prove D1 retention with 30m gameplay (Tier2-3 Geos, aOS) of 35%.✅ 6. Prove D7 retention with 120m gameplay (Tier 2-3 Geos, aOS) of 15%.✅ 7. Implement RVs, Interstitials, basic IAP, HC sinks as per econ model in #4.✅ 8. Optimize for D7 payback of 50%, D30 of 100%.✅ 9. Assume you need to attempt the above 3-5 […]