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David Vargas

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Sharing insights and real data on my new ADC campaign

Last week, I was one of the first guys announcing the new setup that TikTok offers for iOS campaigns, where you can basically enable or disable SKAN and trust in ADC only. I was not going to miss the chance of being one of the first with the new update so I started a new campaign the exact same day when I posted that to see how good ADC can be compared to SKAN.Today, as usual, I am sharing insights and real data so you can draw your own conclusions 😉Here's what the new ADC campaign has generated for me in one AEO campaign based on Purchases for a mobile game (casual category) whose SKAN schema is simply formed by revenue buckets:👉Installs ADC: 618👉Installs SKAN: 270 (-56% than ADC)👉Installs ASC: Not available ❌ --> first time in my life I […]

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TikTok changed the iOS campaign setup

🚨 TikTok has changed the iOS campaign setup 🚨 Today, I noticed a new option when creating an iOS campaign on TikTok: you can now enable or disable SKAN attribution.This is essentially the same approach Meta uses with AEM, but TikTok still gives you the option to activate SKAN attribution so you can view SKAN data directly in the dashboard (something that you can also do with Meta but not in TikTok if you disable this option)The question is: What signals are the campaigns using now? Previously, you couldn't disable SKAN when ADC was enabled so I assumed the campaigns were still relying on SKAN signals for optimization. But now, it looks like TikTok has taken things a step further. It appears the algorithm is ready to optimize based on probabilistic signal attribution only.Time to test!

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Meta AdROAS Campaign Quickly Lose Efficiency When Scaling

Last Case Study before MAU! ✈️ Are you a gaming company monetizing through IAA?🕹️ Then this case study will definitely be of interest to you.Four months ago, I was among the first to publicly test Meta’s new adROAS campaigns (feel free to check my earlier posts). Since then, I’ve been consistently testing them across different games.Today, I want to share something that has happened not once, but three times—with three different games:👉𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐚 𝐚𝐝𝐑𝐎𝐀𝐒 𝐜𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐬 "𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐥𝐲" 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠Don’t get me wrong— These campaigns work really well on Android and have delivered strong results for me. But it seems there’s a ceiling: as you start to scale spend, efficiency drops and the breakeven point gets pushed further out.Here are the three main issues I’ve observed:1️⃣ Efficiency drops despite continuous creative rotationIn this last case, I have tested +100 creatives with […]

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State of Creative Optimization: 2025 Edition

Since the last post in this format was well received, I thought it would be interesting to also share my key takeaways from the new State of Creative Optimization report by AppsFlyer. I’ve had the opportunity to work with many different app categories over the last years, and the behavior of creatives varies significantly across them. Here are my key insights, along with real experiences:1️⃣🏆 Constant creative testing is key: I’m not reinventing the wheel here—creative testing has become increasingly important due to changes in algorithm behavior and the faster burnout rate of creatives.Regardless of your app vertical, if you don’t build a creative production system that allows for constant refreshes with a good volume of new concepts, your campaigns will quickly experience ad fatigue, leading to a drop in performance. This point is well supported by the report: both gaming […]

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Modeling attribution on iOS?

How to navigate the messy world of SKAN, AEM, and probabilistic attribution — plus two practical frameworks to get a clearer picture of campaign performance. SKAdNetwork (SKAN) was, and still is, the most significant change in the app industry over the past decade. As a UA consultant, I still remember the good old days when we could run multiple value optimized (VO) campaigns on any ad network and achieve positive profitability within 30 days using deterministic attribution. Yeah, I won’t deny it. Having identifiers for advertisers (IDFAs) was great from a performance perspective but our privacy was seriously attacked by most companies that were promoting their stuff on the internet. The industry needed to evolve after the Facebook-Cambridge scandal and Apple was the fastest and most aggressive player to address this issue by deleting the unique parameter that allowed us […]

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Apple Search Ads recent move to SKAN

I hadn't shared my thoughts on ASA’s recent move to SKAN yet. But now that the decision has officially taken effect today, I think it’s still a good time to discuss what I expect from this. Apple has decided to align their ad network aligned with the rest of channels by using SKAN but only limited to versions 1-3 which is in my opinion, an embarrassing decision. We must remember that SKAN 4.0 was launched in October 2022!!!! 🫠 If the creator of this attribution framework isn’t even able to implement the latest version in its own ad network, you can imagine how "ready" SKAN 4 really is…But putting that aside, let's talk about what we can expect from this pivoting decision and I will be quite straightforward with my opinion as usual:👉You must expect a drop in all SKAN […]

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Finally, Thanks Meta!

SKAdNetwork (SKAN) 4.0, the latest version of Apple's privacy-preserving framework for mobile app install attribution, was officially launched on October 24, 2022. Today, 1076 days later, Meta is adopting that version😂😂😂😂😂😂Thank you guys! You have really shown proactivity at the highest level.

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SKAN can work better than AEM for Some Apps

📢SKAN can work better than AEM for some apps Yes, you read that right.AEM is not a silver bullet.It can fail when, for some reason, Meta is not able to fingerprint their users 😬(because yes, they obviously do fingerprinting😂)Today, I’m sharing a real case where this happened.We started a Trial Start campaign in early February using AEM to feed the algorithm with real-time signals which indeed helps the campaigns to optimize better.The campaign started to show more signals on AEM than SKAN during the first weeks but with the time, SKAN started capturing more CTA conversions daily (as shown in the graph), making a HUGE difference on the CPT for each attribution methodology.In my case:👉Cost per trial (last 14d) according to AEM: $71👉Cost per trial (last 14d) according to SKAN: $49🤯Difference: SKAN is 30% cheaper, making my campaigns profitable—unlike AEM.Despite […]

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Targeting Older Audience Segments?

If you are targeting older audience segments (+35yo) --> This is what you are looking for 🎯 Today I am sharing a real data case with one of my clients.In this case, our core audience was men over 35. After setting up the initial campaigns in Meta, I started experimenting with the creatives as I usually do.We had all kind of angles and concepts (UGC, static banners and motion videos) within the same ad group because we had not more budget to create separate testing ad groups. However, by analyzing the engagement metrics of our videos, we identified the key elements that resonated with our core audience. I primarily rely on the following metrics to evaluate the performance of creatives::-CPA-CPI-Outbound CTR-Hook Rate-Hold Rate-Install Rate-IPM-CVR from Install to Target ActionWith these metrics, you can easily determine which creatives perform best and […]

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My Takeaways from State of Subscription Apps

🔥 My key takeaways from the State of Subscription Apps 2025 Beyond the new candlestick charts that I really love (I am a HUGE investing freak), this year’s State of Subscription Apps report is packed with insights on how subscription apps have evolved. This is, in my opinion, the best report on the space, and for the first time, I’m sharing the four trends that stood out most to me:1️⃣ Another year, another drop in trial conversionWith such a saturated market, it’s no surprise that trial conversion rates are down across nearly all categories. Looking at specific categories, Fitness & Health seems to be one of the most affected, with a 4.6% drop—likely influenced by the explosion of AI fitness apps, which have been massively scaling through influencer marketing and web-to-app flows2️⃣Hard Paywalls can work but only if value is […]

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Conversions on iOS Campaigns: Meta Underestimates, Google Overestimates

📢If you run iOS campaigns on Google Ads and Meta using their modeling technologies simultaneously, you need to know this: 👉Google ALWAYS tends to overestimate conversions👉Meta ALWAYS tends to underestimate conversionsAnd to prove it, I will share a recent case I had with one new client which I recently audited and had NOT SKAN schema in place (they just had cv=0 for installs and that's it)First, let's analyze Google Ads numbers: They were running one AEO campaigns for "start_trial" in the US. Since they didn't set up any event in SKAN schema, these trials were purely modeled by Google.➡Google modeled installs: 537➡SKAN installs: 427➡ASC App Referrer: 419 installs With ASC and SKAN being so close, it’s hard to trust Google’s numbers. (I know ASC & SKAN are not attributed in the same way, and they're even different conversions)➡Google modeled trials: 139 […]

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