About the author
John Wright
With over 11 years of experience in the AdTech/Gaming industry, I am passionate about creating engaging and profitable mobile games that reach millions of players worldwide.
Journal 3 John Wright June 3
Last year, the mobile games market had its first-ever decline as player behaviors changed due to life returning to a resemblance of normality after the pandemic. Other factors within the industry, such as rising costs, a more demanding user acquisition process, and various other industry changes, have made finding success and profits a far higher order.
I mentioned in my UA series that launching a game has become significantly more challenging this year, especially on iOS after the IDFA deprecation. If you take a look at the top 100 games in the US, you’ll notice a few key trends:
“I’ve had discussions with approximately 70-80 C-level executives from studios of varying sizes and locations, and there is genuine concern about the survival of their businesses.”
There are exceptions to these observations, but these are the overarching trends I’ve been witnessing. Over the past six weeks, I’ve had discussions with approximately 70-80 C-level executives from studios of varying sizes and locations, and there is genuine concern about the survival of their businesses.
The reasons for this concern are evident:
“Small studios that self-publish will continue to face challenges, except for the fortunate few who achieve exceptional success.”
From a publishing perspective, I can share some insights:
In summary, 2023 is shaping up to be a year where big companies and publishers lead the charge, and this trend will likely continue in 2024. Small studios that self-publish will continue to face challenges, except for the fortunate few who achieve exceptional success. Many companies that previously found success on their own are likely to form closer partnerships with publishers, leading to a market dominated by fewer and more established names.
The increased difficulty in finding successful games
Below are the three main reasons I see for these increased difficulties:
One of the most frustrating aspects of this changing landscape is the shift in what defines success.
Let me share an example from Kwalee:
“Make sure that you keep your head high and find a publisher who sees the long-term vision with you.”
We recently worked with a studio for about six weeks. While testing one of their older titles, which was less engaging, we obtained unfavourable results. However, they had a new game that was initially underdeveloped but now had a proper MVP with 60 minutes of gameplay, which we wanted to test. We spent hours advising them on monetisation strategies, the placement of RVs, interstitial frequency, shop construction, and the use of soft and hard currency, etc.
The initial test results seemed promising to me, with an impressive 40+ IPM and a pLTV of 0.55 cents. I was excited about these results, and during the hyper-casual gaming boom, this game might have ranked in the top five charts globally.
However, the current gaming landscape is markedly different, and what signifies success has changed. Upon reviewing the data from our testing campaign with our marketing team, I realised that our average CPI exceeded 0.80 cents, even with an IPM of 40. This meant that to achieve profitability, we needed to reach target eCPM rates of $32 or even more, likely closer to $40 in the US/iOS market.
This revelation indicated that the game, which I initially believed would be a hit, was far from ready for a profitable launch. This was just the first round of tests. At Kwalee, we are committed to thorough efforts and will continue to collaborate with this developer in the coming weeks to enhance all metrics. It won’t be a quick, easy, or inexpensive process.
My best advice at this moment is not to lose hope. As a developer, it’s easy to feel disheartened when the path to success seems elusive. It’s even more challenging when you achieve what you believe are great metrics, only to discover that they fall short of ensuring success; make sure that you keep your head high and find a publisher who sees the long-term vision with you.
About the author
With over 11 years of experience in the AdTech/Gaming industry, I am passionate about creating engaging and profitable mobile games that reach millions of players worldwide.
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