Is Starting a Startup Today a Stupid Decision?
The Mobile Gaming scene is WILD right now.
Everyone is asking the same question these days…
We all do complain about the saturated and consolidated market. Though AI is right here, so many one-man-army folks, so looots of opportunities out there.
Just like Trump‘s saying:
It’s a great time to get RICH, richer than ever before. Getting rich has never been that easy.
The Question?
How to crack the market?
Got lots of cool stuff for ya.
Just came across Sett’s Podcast with Akin Babayigit (a.k.a aKing)
Quality insights INCOMIN’ 👇🏻
We all know him, Co-founder of Tripledot, the company that basically redefined “fastest-growing” (seriously, named the fastest-growing company in the UK/Europe in 2023). Clearly, we do have an OG here who shaped, is shaping, and will shape the ecosystem.
I know, we’re talking about a MACHINE, but honestly, half the time he’s just one of us, really.
For data-maniac people, proof below. 👇🏻
Jokes aside, let’s get back to the topic :))
Here is some cool stuff out of the Podcast. 👇🏻
Akin put himself as a self-confessed “techno-optimist” & “zero to one guy”.
CORE message?
Mobile gaming isn’t dead; it’s arguably bigger than movies and music combined. But here’s the kicker: The BAR for success is now “a looot higher”.
For founders, UA wizards & Operators ready to own the next era, Akin shares some tips on how to win in the age of AI, fierce competition, and endless potential:
• Stop chasing innovation. Iteration wins the war. Akin’s investment thesis (with his new venture, Arcadia) is to back the teams who learned the “art and science” at industry “universities” like King, Peak & Supercell.
• Your real rival isn’t the studio next door. It’s the battle for attention against giants like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube Shorts.
• Want to compete with rising hubs like China & Turkey?
That laid-back, 32-hour week is “over.” Success demands relentless hard work and the hunger to win that these regions demonstrate.
• Use AI right now for quick, substantial wins: focus on massive incremental gains in workflow efficiency + marketing asset production.
Alright, let’s go easy. 👇🏻
Starting a Startup Today: Stupid Decision, or?
Starting a startup is a statistically stupid and irrational decision. A founder should only pursue it if it is the only thing they can think of doing.
When Akin was co-founding Tripledot, the uncertain future meant he and his partners were not taking salaries and faced the statistical fact that they would likely fail. Akin coped by setting a mental “worst case” scenario.
The best time to start was 20 years ago, but the second-best time is today; founders should “just do it” and never try to time the market.
There is no greater professional joy than seeing something you build grow like crazy.
Now is considered a great time to start a gaming company because the current competitive environment means fewer people are starting businesses, creating a perfect cohort of dedicated founders. Building for two years during this market “downswing” means the company will be positioned for success when the market inevitably enters an upswing two or three years later.
Tell Your Younger Self: It’s OK to Say NO
While Akin believes many things in his life turned out perfectly, and he would generally tell his younger self to “do the same,” there is one critical lesson.
The advice, which remains difficult for him even today, is to prioritize yourself a little bit more than other people. It is okay to say “no” to something you do not want to do without feeling the need to provide a reason.
Can Wrong Things Be Good in the Long Run?
During the initial zero-to-one phase of a startup, founders must recognize they are making a tremendous number of decisions daily. To succeed, more than half of these decisions must be correct, meaning approximately half of them are going to be wrong decisions, and the founder has to be okay with that.
In terms of business philosophy, Akin advocates for being “long-term greedy, not short-term greedy,” a perspective he learned from his co-founder, Leor. Doing the right things in the short term might sometimes look like the wrong decisions. The goal is to optimize for doing the right thing for the long term, maintaining a horizon that is as close to infinite as possible.
Is Mobile Gaming Dead?
The narrative that mobile gaming is too tough or too crowded has existed since the beginning of the mobile gaming industry, which is still very young (14 to 15 years old). For example, in 2014, people argued it was impossible to launch another Match-3 game due to Candy Crush‘s success, yet companies like Playrix, Peak Games & Dream Games proved this wrong.
Mobile gaming is far larger than generally reported, generating revenue that makes the market bigger than movies and music combined. Current market reports often fail to account for revenue from IAA & off-store purchases. The market is highly lucrative, and the bar for entry and success is simply “a lot higher”.
The secular trend remains strong: people will not stop playing games, and mobile devices will likely dominate the near future, ensuring the market always has an audience. Akin finds the perception that mobile gaming is dead beneficial, as he knows the opposite is true, pointing out that new companies continue to emerge, making hundreds of millions of dollars per month.
Biggest Competitors?
Mobile Gaming companies today are not only competing against other games; their main competitive battleground is the fight for attention. The true competition comes from platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube Shorts. Akin noted that Tripledot would see spikes in usage when Instagram was down, demonstrating that mobile games serve as the immediate alternative when other attention platforms are unavailable.
To succeed in this intense environment, Western studios must face the competition posed by rising hubs like China, Turkey & Vietnam. Success stories from these countries are attributed primarily to one factor: relentless hard work and the hunger to win. The best university graduates in Turkey, for instance, are now channeled into gaming, an ecosystem comparable to cybersecurity in Israel. Studios in these regions often work from 9 until 20:00, five or six days a week. So, the “luxury of working 32 hours a week is over” if Western studios want to compete.
How Should Gaming Companies Use AI Today?
Two primary ways, one focused on the present and one on the future:
1. Improving Workflow Efficiency (Today):
Companies should focus on using AI to improve the efficiency of existing workflows, which yields significant incremental gains (ranging from 30% to 60%). This includes areas like creative production, assets production (such as marketing assets), and workflow automation. Studios are advised to perform a “ground-up rethink of everything you’re doing” and try to leverage AI for all aspects of their business.
2. Accessing Proprietary Data:
Data leveraging is crucial, particularly figuring out how to gain access to and utilize proprietary, first-party data much more effectively than others.
While these improvements are substantial, they are incremental, not a “step function change”. The paradigm shift, where AI can fully ideate a concept, build the game, and launch it (approaching AGI), is still estimated to be several years away, perhaps three to five years in the future
